Sun Jan 08 2023 - A serious COVID infection and death wave is presently sweeping China. According to news sources, hospitals and cemeteries are 'overflowing'. 

A serious COVID infection and death wave is presently sweeping China. According to news sources, hospitals and cemeteries are 'overflowing'. Due to substantial gaps in official reporting, we are unsure of the full severity of the situation. Still, it

Covid 19, a virus first discovered in Wuhan, China, 

has wreaked havoc on humankind since its emergence. This disease has devastated communities, destroyed livelihoods and threatened the lives of 

Why did China Arrive Here? How Will Things Turn Out?

Contrary to common belief, the country's decision to withdraw its Zero COVID policy in early December did not necessarily cause the current wave of illnesses. The cases in China were already rising even before the Zero-Covid limitations were relaxed.

Its believed that a big part of the reason instances are increasing right now is that 

China continued their Zero-COVID approach (after immunising its population) for too long.

On the other hand, New Zealand quickly ended its COVID suppression policy after its vaccine campaign was finished. Reopening resulted in an increase in infections, as predicted. However, it was lower than in many other nations.

We are aware that vaccination effectiveness begins to fade after a certain time period. According to one preprint (a study that has not yet been evaluated by other scientists), practically all infection protection has been lost by eight months following the first booster. 

By February 2022, China's vaccination campaign was largely over. The preventive effect against infection would therefore have largely worn off by autumn. Even the longer-lasting protection against serious illness and death would also have decreased.

Although vaccination is the most reliable method of preventing COVID, recent studies have shown that protection against severe illness lasts a bit longer after a natural infection and much longer if a person has "

" (i.e., they have had both a natural infection and immunisation).

Few individuals in China had hybrid immunity

 at the time this wave first appeared. Additionally, reports indicate that in China, elderly people's immunisation rates are lower than those of younger individuals. If true, combined with new infections, this would further increase fatalities and severe sickness.

Well, It might already be too late to actually change how this outbreak develops.

During this outbreak, estimates of the reproductive number, or R0 (the typical number of persons a virus-infected person transmits the virus to), have exceeded 10 and reached as high as 18. 

With an R0 this high, non-pharmaceutical measures like lockdowns, school closings, and mask use would not be sufficient to meaningfully control the spread of the illnesses.

The most crucial action China can take right now is to increase vaccination rates among its elderly and more vulnerable citizens. Given that many of these individuals are refraining from mixing and hence have not yet been exposed, it is possible to fix this.

The majority of nations currently have great immunity and protection against severe disease and death from COVID. The COVID-19 epidemiological situation in Europe is not anticipated to be affected by China's spike, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Additionally, the bulk of variations found in China are ancestors of the BF.7 and BA.5.2 lineages. Any introductions from China shouldn't significantly increase the number of these infections since these variants peaked in Europe last summer and are already in decline.

, which has been proliferating in the US over the past month, is the main cause for concern for Europe. There is, of course, always a chance that another variation could emerge in China due to the high infection rate. Or a fresh, graver variation may appear someplace else on the planet.

China's 'Zero-Covid' Crisis: Should the World be Alaramed?

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