In recent years, there has been a significant and swift transformation in the geopolitical landscape on a global scale. Whenever a region has a period of peace, a co

In recent years, there has been a significant and swift transformation in the geopolitical landscape on a global scale. Whenever a region has a period of peace, a consequential event often occurs that significantly impacts the geopolitical landscape. This event not only affects the two countries directly involved, but also has far-reaching implications for the global economy and geopolitics as a whole. Historical occurrences, such the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US-China trade war, the Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic, have had significant ramifications on the supply chain, hence impacting the field of Supply Chain Management. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, a Palestinian militant organization governing the Gaza Strip, commenced on October 7th, 2023. This escalation was initiated by Hamas through a multifaceted assault on Israel, prompting a forceful retaliatory action by the Israeli government. Subsequently, as a consequence of the ongoing conflict, the number of Palestinian fatalities has exceeded 900, while the Israeli casualties have surpassed 1000. The victims primarily consist of women and children. 

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has been influenced by the recent conflict between Hamas and Israel, extending beyond the political dynamics of the two nations involved. Over the course of the previous year, the United States has actively pursued the normalization of diplomatic relations with nations including Saudi Arabia and Iran. The United States sought to establish diplomatic normalization not just with its own nation but also with Israel and several other Middle Eastern countries that had maintained a boycott against Israel since its inception. Both the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, have been advocating for the normalization of diplomatic relations. Following the occurrence of the incident, Anthony Blinken, the Secretary of State of the United States, asserted that the primary aim of Hamas in the conflict was to undermine Israel's prospects of establishing normalized relations with Middle Eastern nations. Ever since US President Joe Biden took office, he has pursued efforts to normalize relations between the United States and Iran. The United States has been engaged in efforts to reduce tensions with Iran and pursue a phased resumption of the Iran Nuclear Deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which the previous US president, Donald Trump, withdrew in 2018. Subsequently, in an effort to normalize relations, both nations engaged in a reciprocal exchange of prisoners, while the United States subsequently lifted the freeze on Iran's $6 billion assets.

Furthermore, an additional consequence of the battle may have a prolonged impact on the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor), a project supported by the United States as a strategic response to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The ongoing war has the potential to hinder the United States' efforts to counter China's BRI, as the United States has shown unwavering support, while countries in the Middle East are demonstrating their solidarity with the victims in Palestine. In light of the ongoing violence, Secretary Anthony Blinken of the United States has engaged in diplomatic discussions with leaders of West Asian nations in an effort to address the escalating humanitarian crisis, which has been progressively worsening with each passing day. Blinken has also visited Saudi Arabia in order to address the status of its suspended normalize efforts with Israel.

Since the occurrence of the trade war between China and the United States, tensions have persisted between the two nations on various matters. Consequently, instances of mutual agreement on crisis resolution have become infrequent. Nevertheless, in the context of the Israel-Hamas conflict, both China and the United States are currently engaged in diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the hostilities. In March 2023, China facilitated a diplomatic accord between Saudi Arabia and Iran, enabling the two nations to restore their diplomatic relations. Subsequently, China has been widely acknowledged as a prominent actor whose influence has exhibited a steady expansion inside the region. In contrast to the United States, the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas has the potential to yield long-term benefits for China. Following the G20 meeting held in India, an announcement was made regarding a new corridor project known as the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). This project garnered support from the United States, as it sought to provide an alternative solution or counter project to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The IMEC was seen as a viable option to complement and compete with the BRI. However, recent conflicts and the suspension of efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, this has impacted the progress of the IMEC. Numerous analysts have already made predictions on the protracted nature of the Israel-Hamas conflict, positing that its prolonged duration could potentially facilitate the effective and seamless operation of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project. Despite China's willingness to facilitate peace talks between Israel and Hamas through diplomatic means, some countries, like the United States, perceive China's involvement as driven by its own self-interest. In recent months, China has provided support to Palestine in response to escalated Israeli military operations. Palestine is included within China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Consequently, China recognises that providing support to Palestine in the ongoing conflict has the potential to yield significant geopolitical benefits. This backing might serve as a strategic advantage for China, enabling the country to establish lucrative agreements with diverse Arab nations. China is aware of the longstanding alliance between the United States and Israel, which has been in place since the establishment of the latter. Consequently, China perceives limited advantages in aligning itself with Israel in the ongoing struggle.

A thorn for India’s geopolitical situation

India, as a nation, has always adhered to the principles of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), a strategy conceived by India's inaugural Prime Minister, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, during the period of the Cold War. Over the course of 76 years, numerous leaders have assumed and relinquished positions of power. Nevertheless, India's policy of Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) has consistently aligned itself with the interests of the nation. Despite facing criticism from various observers, India has successfully employed this policy and continues to do so in the 21st century. The aforementioned scenario became evident during the Russia-Ukraine Conflict, wherein India refrained from boycotting Russia despite pressure from Western nations and did not extend military support to Ukraine, unlike countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States. India has consistently pursued diplomatic means to facilitate dialogue and engagement between the involved parties. Contrary to expectations, the Israel-Hamas conflict witnessed a notable stance from India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who openly proclaimed his unwavering support for Israel through a tweet on the X platform from personal social media account. Despite receiving support from other Western countries and even certain individuals within India, the Indian government's stance in favor of Israel and against terrorism was upheld. Nevertheless, this strategic decision carries the potential for adverse consequences. India, known for its historical commitment to the Non-Aligned Movement and its impartial stance in conflicts, has established diplomatic ties not only with Israel but also with Palestine. In recent years, India has offered economic assistance to Palestine, specifically in the areas of education, healthcare, and technology. However, India's relationship with Israel is characterized by greater strength and depth. Israel has provided significant support to India during various conflicts with Pakistan, exemplified by the 1999 Kargil War. During this conflict, Israel extended aid to India by supplying mortar and ammunition, as well as advanced weaponry such as laser-guided missiles and surveillance drones. Hence, India's firm endorsement of Israel can be seen justifiable to some extent. Over the course of the previous eight days, subsequent to the commencement of the conflict, numerous Arab states have demonstrated their support for the Palestinian cause. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), despite expressing criticism towards the Hamas attack, promptly provided $20 million in help to the Palestinian population. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has also demonstrated its solidarity with the Palestinian cause. In the event that the duration of the conflict resembles that of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is plausible that the I2U2 pact, which aims to establish a connection between Israel, India, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates, may now be perceived as doubtful. The process of normalizing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been temporarily suspended by Saudi Arabia. Another potential ramification might be the indefinite suspension of the Indian Manufacturing and Exporting Council (IMEC), which could have a substantial detrimental impact on India.

Furthermore, in the event of the conflict spreading to other Arab states, India will need to closely monitor the potential consequences on oil prices, given that India relies only on imports to cover 85% of its oil requirements. While Israel is not currently a significant producer, the escalating tensions in the Middle East pose a potential threat to India. If the conflict, similar to the Russia-Ukraine War, persists, it could negatively impact India's reputation as an emerging superpower. India, which asserts itself as a growing superpower in the Global South, will need to adopt a stance similar to its position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in order to maintain this image. There exists a significant probability that India may experience greater adverse consequences in this conflict compared to China or the United States.

China and US strategic game in the Middle East and repercussions for India

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