The Gaza conflict, which has already lasted for more than 6 months, has extended perilously into Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and possibly Iran. On January 2, an Israeli dr

The Gaza conflict, which has already lasted for more than 6 months, has extended perilously into Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and possibly Iran. On January 2, an Israeli drone attack targeted a Hamas headquarters in Beirut, resulting in the death of Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy commander of the Hamas leadership from overseas. On the next day, two detonations occurred in Kerman, namely at the mausoleum of General Qassem Soleimani, the former leader of the Al Quds Force. These blasts resulted in the death of 95 individuals who had gathered at the shrine to commemorate the fourth anniversary of his killing. While the Islamic State has claimed credit, a significant number of Iranians believe that Israel is responsible.  

On January 4, the United States declared the deliberate assassination of the leader of an Iran-associated militia in Baghdad. This force has been carrying out attacks on American targets since the start of the Gaza conflict. These strikes have taken place during the continuing conflicts in the Red Sea's waters in recent weeks, when the Houthis have been using drones and missiles to target commercial vessels. This has resulted in the United States responding with significant retribution. The Houthis have urgently requested the provision of humanitarian aid to the besieged Palestinians in Gaza.  

These strikes have intensified tensions in the already unstable area that is suffering from the death and damage caused by Israel in Gaza since early October. In the last three months, more than 22,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have lost their lives, and almost two million have been forced to leave their homes. This is the biggest displacement of Palestinians ever recorded. The Palestinian population in Gaza is now facing an exceptional humanitarian crisis.

Israeli forces have extended their military activities to the West Bank, resulting in the deaths of about 300 Palestinians, the arrest of several thousand others, and the destruction of several houses. Israeli cabinet Ministers have endorsed the use of force by their military and have advocated for the removal of Palestinians from Gaza and the replacement of the population with Jewish settlers.

The current primary concern is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, driven by desperation, may choose to pursue a path of escalation. Despite the significant number of deaths in Gaza, Israel has achieved very little in its efforts. Despite their commitment to destroying the Hamas military capabilities and the movement itself, no prominent Hamas leader has been captured in Gaza. Furthermore, Hamas continues to cause harm to Israeli soldiers in the ongoing ground combat. Israeli security forces have imprisoned many thousand women and children in an attempt to extract information about the whereabouts of Hamas officials. However, their efforts have not yielded any noticeable results thus far. There are allegations that the execution of al-Arouri was executed to demonstrate a measure of achievement in the conflict against Hamas. Saleh al-Arouri, according to all reports, was an easily accessible and vulnerable individual. Despite his significant role in the Hamas leadership, he has been mostly based in Beirut in recent years, where he mainly coordinated with Hezbollah and Iran. The majority of sources indicate that he was not involved in the planning or execution of the October 7, 2023, assaults.

Targeted murders are devoid of any practical value: while the eliminated leaders are swiftly replaced, these killings intensify mutual animosity and raise tensions. There is a concerning possibility that Mr. Netanyahu may not be opposed to a large-scale conflict in the region. This is due to the recent political and military failures that allowed Hamas to carry out attacks on October 7. Additionally, with no significant military achievements thus far and the Supreme Court rejecting his proposals for judicial reforms, the Prime Minister is now facing the imminent likelihood of resigning, being arrested, and being imprisoned. Could Netanyahu, driven by desperation, be inclined to use this chance to completely eradicate all Palestinian opposition, neutralise Hezbollah as a combat force, and weaken Iran as a menace? The potential is being raised due to the lack of a clear vision or plan from any major party throughout the three-month conflict in Gaza, considering the endgame and the aftermath of the cessation of hostilities. Israel has not provided clear objectives or plans for the supervision of Gaza after the conflict, while making aggressive statements about the annihilation of Hamas and ethnic cleansing of the seized regions. Indeed, there is no explicit reference to a peace process that extends over a longer period. Therefore, acts of mass murders in Gaza and deliberate targeted assassinations in the surrounding area have now become goals.

Since its inception, the United States has been actively seeking a comprehensive policy. In addition to providing comprehensive political and military backing to Israel, the Biden administration has shown insincere sympathy for humanitarian issues, however, has not accomplished any tangible results in addressing them. The dominant power in the area, which has already lost credibility, is unable to assert itself in promoting a peace process. Evidently, the influence of Israel's right-wing backers in Washington has immobilised the government and caused it to become complacent. The Arab governments have not shown any assertiveness or guidance so far. Apart from ineffective conferences and resolutions, there is no indication of a unified and powerful strategy regarding the wider Palestine problem or even worries about regional security. Saudi Arabia now has the primary burden for bringing about peace. Only it has the regional and global influence necessary to demand that its opinions be prioritized. Having boldly rejected its subordinate position to U.S. directives, it has been actively pursuing an autonomous foreign policy that garners favorable support from the world's major countries. Palestinian interests and the achievement of regional peace need the implementation of strong and proactive actions by Saudi Arabia, which have been lacking so far.  

Now is the opportune moment for West Asian leaders and their citizens to align their interests and work together for the benefit of the region. If they fail to do so, they will be overwhelmed by the surge of regional war that they have made no effort to stop.

Israel – Gaza Conflict and where is West Asia headed?

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