In recent years, there has been a significant and swift transformation in the global geopolitical landscape. Events such as the ongoing trade dispute between the Uni

In recent years, there has been a significant and swift transformation in the global geopolitical landscape. Events such as the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, the global COVID-19 pandemic, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine have had significant impacts on the geopolitical landscape and global supply chains. The rivalry between India and China serves as a prominent illustration of the geopolitical shifts occurring on a global scale. Over the past few years, the competition between the two neighboring nations has evolved from mere verbal exchanges along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to the occupation of strategic and military positions in pursuit of their respective interests.

Over the recent years, following China's heightened engagement in the 

 (IOR), the area has emerged as a focal point for the dynamic developments taking place. The Maldives, an island nation renowned for its unspoiled beaches and high-end resorts during the previous few decades, has recently emerged as a significant and very volatile country. The Maldives, situated in a physically diverse region, is considered to be one of the most diversified countries in terms of its geographical characteristics. The island republic, spanning an area of over 90,000 square kms and consisting of more than 26 islands, is situated in a central position within the Indian Ocean. This geographical location has rendered it strategically significant, attracting considerable attention from both India and China. Throughout the years, both India and China have endeavored to garner the allegiance of Maldives inside their own spheres of influence. These nations have recognized Maldives as a nation of utmost importance.

Relationship between the Maldives and India

The Island nation is situated at a distance of 70 nautical miles from India's Lakshadweep archipelago and 300 nautical miles from the west coast of India. Throughout history, the Island has consistently maintained a significant alliance with India, serving as a longstanding and reputable commercial partner. The diplomatic ties between India and Maldives have endured for over five decades, with India being the initial nation to acknowledge the sovereignty of Maldives. Furthermore, India holds the distinction of establishing the inaugural resident mission in the capital city of Male. India has provided assistance to the Maldives on multiple occasions, exemplified by the implementation of operation Cactus in 1988. This operation was conducted in response to a coup attempt targeting 

 Gayoom. Subsequently, both nations have entered into a defense cooperation treaty in 2009, wherein the Indian Navy and the MNDF (Maldives National Defense Force) would engage in collaborative surveillance operations. The government of New Delhi has also consented to furnish the Maldives with a Dhruv chopper. India has provided assistance to Maldives on multiple occasions, including during the 2004 tsunami catastrophe and the 2014 drinking water crisis. The two nations interact with each other based on India's "

". Since the transition in leadership of the Indian Government in 2014 and the assumption of office by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has adopted a proactive stance in solidifying its position in the Indian Ocean through the implementation of maritime diplomacy and initiatives. An additional rationale for maintaining close ties with Maldives is to prevent China from expanding its influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), as evidenced by China's increasing interest in Maldives since 2013.

 were established in the year 1972. Subsequently, the level of interaction between the two entities has exhibited a slow and consistent upward trend. Since 1986, the Chinese government has made substantial investments in the Island Nation. Both nations have entered into multiple contractual agreements, totaling $46.37 million in value in the year 2001, resulting in a turnover of $40 million. The bilateral relations between the two nations reached a pinnacle of prosperity in 2013, marked by the election of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the assumption of office by Abdulla Yameen in the Maldives. Following their assumption of power several months later, the Chinese government extended an invitation to the Maldives government to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a highly ambitious project. Subsequently, the Chinese President extended an offer to the Maldives to join the Maritime Silk Road, resulting in the formal endorsement of the BRI by the Maldives. This development positioned the Maldives as the second South Asian nation to officially support the BRI. Over the course of the previous decade, subsequent to the assumption of leadership by Xi Jinping, the Chinese government has actively promoted investment activities among its populace in the Island nation. The Chinese government has implemented several construction initiatives, including the development of housing units, the expansion of the international airport, and other investments aimed at promoting tourism and agriculture. During the tenure of the Yameen administration, the Maldives has incurred a debt of approximately $1.3 billion, a substantial sum relative to the country's GDP of $4 billion. Over the past few years, there have been multiple rumors indicating China's intention to establish an observation post in Makunudhoo, a location situated in the Northwestern Maldives. Historically, whenever the announcement of such a plan was made, it was promptly abandoned, much to the satisfaction of India.

The electoral process in the Maldives has historically adhered to established norms, wherein each election presents an opportunity for a transition of power to a different political party and the election of a new president. The prevailing domestic concerns inside the nation primarily pertain to matters of growth, corruption, violent extremism, and an evaluation of the current leader's performance relative to their predecessor. Since the inception of the 

 (BRI) between China and Maldives, India has expressed apprehension regarding the strategic implications. This unease stems from the fact that Maldives, situated in close proximity to 1,200 coral islands, serves as crucial shipping lanes that facilitate uninterrupted supply chains for India, China, and Japan. The 2018 elections in the Maldives raised significant concerns for India due to the notable shift in the country's government under the leadership of Abdullah Yameen from 2013 to 2018. Yameen's administration took a pronounced pro-China stance, exemplified by the "India Out" campaign and the offer to return helicopters gifted by India. However, the outcome of the 2018 elections, which saw Ibrahim Solih elected as the new leader, brought about a change in the country's foreign policy orientation towards a more pro-India approach. Ibrahim Solih expressed a willingness to prioritize the Quad countries over China. Nevertheless, the outcome of the recent elections, which saw the triumph of Mohamed Muizzu, a pro-China candidate who aligns himself more closely with the China campaign, has raised apprehensions in India. Even prior to the election results, Muizzu campaigned on a platform advocating for the removal of Indian influence, further exacerbating India's concerns. The prevailing outcome of the election has the potential to impede India's progress and may facilitate China's pursuit of 

 (FTAs) with Maldives, so bolstering its supply lines. Despite Mohamed Muizzu's continuation of the pro-China campaign initiated by Abdulla Yameen, it is unlikely that Maldives will fully embrace a comprehensive China-centric approach. This is primarily due to the fact that over the past five years, India has extended significant support to Maldives in a friendly manner, providing military and healthcare assistance during times of crisis. Despite the strained state of India-Maldives relations from 2013 to 2018, it is noteworthy that defense cooperation between the two nations persisted. India has emerged as the primary trading partner of Maldives, serving as both its largest trading partner and a prominent export destination. Additionally, India has maintained its status as a longstanding benefactor for the Maldivian nation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the initial leader to extend congratulations to Mohammed Muizzu upon his victory. Consequently, while India may have relinquished the pilot seat, it does not imply the full absence of opportunities for discussions and diplomatic efforts.

 in 2008 and the commencement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, both India and China have made concerted efforts to exert influence over the Maldives. However, the sole distinction between the aid provided by both nations is that India has consistently extended support to its friends through military and healthcare assistance. The assistance provided by India to Sri Lanka in 2022 following the period of unrest known as "The Struggle" serves as a notable illustration of this phenomenon. The Maldives currently carries a debt of 

 owed to China. Recent events involving China's involvement in the economic situations of Pakistan and Sri Lanka have led other countries to exhibit caution while seeking loans from China. Currently, both nations find themselves burdened by substantial debts resulting from financial loans provided by China. This serves as a cautionary reminder to the Maldives about the potential risks associated with excessive reliance on China for aid. It is worth noting that Male's debt repayment to India aligns with the declining foreign reserves of the Maldives, which may facilitate positive relations between Maldives and India and provide a basis for future negotiations. It is evident that due to ideological and domestic factors, Mohamed Muizzu may exhibit a greater inclination towards China. However, he will not hesitate to align more closely with a country that would not place Maldives in a situation similar to that of Pakistan or Sri Lanka in the future.

Maldives in the middle of India-China power play

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