With the expansion of BRICS membership, the global geopolitical and economic situation becomes intricate and cannot be understood through oversimplified perspectives

With the expansion of BRICS membership, the global geopolitical and economic situation becomes intricate and cannot be understood through oversimplified perspectives or frameworks. At the same time, it is crucial not to lose sight of key geopolitical realities. On January 1, 2024, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Ethiopia officially joined the BRICS+ alliance. The five nations were extended invitations to become members of BRICS during the 15th BRICS Summit, which took place in Johannesburg in August 2023. Argentina was sent an invitation to join the group, however, the country's newly appointed President, Javier Milei, overturned the decision made by his predecessor.

Importance of other nations entering the BRICS alliance

The inclusion of these five nations into the BRICS alliance, established by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2006, with South Africa joining in 2010, holds significant importance for many reasons. Initially, the aggregate economy of the newly formed coalition amounts to $28.5 trillion, surpassing a quarter of the global economy (28%). The aggregate population of BRICS+ amounts to 3.5 billion individuals, representing approximately 45% of the global population. The BRICS+ countries will also be responsible for generating more than 40% of the world's oil.

Furthermore, Russia has taken on the role of leadership in BRICS in 2024, and the relations with western countries have escalated following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Due to escalating geopolitical tensions with Western nations and the implementation of sanctions on Russia, countries like India, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, which have strong connections with the United States, are advocating for de-dollarization. This entails reducing reliance on the US dollar for international trade. Only recently for instance, Iran and Russia had concluded an arrangement for trading in local currencies. It is important to note that there has been a substantial increase in the trading of commodities in currencies other than the US dollar following the implementation of sanctions on Russia. In his virtual presentation to the Johannesburg Summit, Putin characterized de-dollarization as "irreversible" and stated that it is "gaining pace."

The Kremlin issued a statement in which Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned the objectives of the BRICS+ alliance, including the desire to establish a multipolar global order and a just global financial and trade system. Additionally, the group aims to collectively address the major challenges of our era.

The triumph of BRICS+ and the geopolitical circumstances

Russia, China, Iran, and other nations have been actively advocating for the establishment of a BRICS+ currency. The global geopolitical and economic situation is indeed intricate and cannot be understood by oversimplified dichotomies or perspectives. Simultaneously, it is crucial to maintain awareness of specific geopolitical circumstances.

Firstly, it is impossible for BRICS+ to evade geopolitical realities.  An essential reality is in the tensions existing between India and China. That is the reason why the previous entity, although advocating for the reduction of reliance on the US dollar, has been so prudent in its approach towards a BRICS+ currency. Furthermore, Argentina declined to join BRICS+ due to China's predominant influence over the group. Multiple nations will closely monitor China's involvement in BRICS+.

Furthermore, although BRICS+ is being hailed as a potential substitute for G20, it is worth noting that numerous members of BRICS+ also hold significant positions within the G20. In 2023, India assumed the leadership of the G20 and hosted the highly successful G20 Summit in Delhi. India successfully brokered a compromise between Western countries and those aligned with Russia, resulting in the New Delhi leaders' declaration. This declaration called for an end to the conflict without explicitly mentioning Russia. This was considered as a diplomatic success. Furthermore, considering Saudi Arabia's significant role as a member of the G20, it can be contended that India would embrace the inclusion of nations such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia into BRICS in order to establish shared interests. Furthermore, several constituents of the BRICS+ alliance, notably India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, may seek to capitalize on the advantages of BRICS+ without being entangled in any geopolitical rivalries. These countries may also feel uneasy about BRICS+ assuming an anti-western stance, considering their significant affiliations with western nations. Dismissing the US dollar due to the growing de-dollarization is a simplistic perspective. It still accounts for a considerable percentage of global currency reserves. Several countries who are transitioning away from using the US dollar as their primary currency are aware of the limitations of this approach.

The expansion of BRICS is essential in economic and geopolitical terms, it is crucial to appreciate the complexity and nuances of the global geopolitical and economic landscape. It is important for the United States to recognize the constraints of the existing system and the economic vulnerabilities of developing nations. Similarly, Russia and China should recognize that expressing hostility against the United States and criticizing the current global order without offering practical alternatives are unlikely to garner significant backing.

The expansion of BRICS and its implications for India

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