North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un may be prepared in very short order to carry out his first nuclear test in five years, this time of the kind of nuclear device that could be used on the battlefield as part of a tactical nuclear weapon.

This is raising some real concerns, not just among US allies, but here in Washington itself, about what kind of response the US would be able to carry out, given the existing fractured global alliances. 

South Korea's intelligence says they expect this test to happen on the cusp of the US Midterm elections.

The United States is concerned that Kim Jong Un's recently made a change to the constitution that would allow for the first use of nuclear weapons.

 This might not be just noise, but actual pressure he's trying to apply. He had disappeared from the global scene for the past few years during COVID and after his diplomacy with former President Trump failed. Now, this is a statement if he comes out and carries out this test.

Kim Jong Un watches over a missile launch

But in terms of the timing, the calculation from the South Koreans was that Kim Jong Un, who was very dependent on Beijing, would not dare carry out a test during the Chinese Communist Party Congress, but that he could carry out a test in this window before the US. Midterm elections to put pressure on President Biden.

All diplomatic efforts to date by the Biden administration haven't gotten anything for him.

 And this has been regularly an attempt to draw attention. You point out the missile tests. There have also been about 44 ballistic missile tests in the past year. So these are the kind of delivery mechanisms, the other kind of architecture and weaponry that Kim Jong Un is showing off to demonstrate that he does not want to be overlooked. 

In addition to North Korea, Biden is facing threats from all counts, China, Russia and also some heat from Iran

That's because the world community might be focused on either Ukraine or on what China is doing.

 US's ability has been stretched to manage those three challenges, Russia, China, and now maybe North Korea, and then how the international community responds to each of these autocrats choosing to assert their personalities at the same time. 

One of the reasons why it's so complicated is that the go-to response has been international sanctions. 

But right now, we have a United Nations Security Council that is incredibly fractured with Beijing and Moscow, who both have veto power, not very comfortable with punishing bad behaviour like this.

In fact, when North Korea fired off a missile that flew over Japan at the beginning of October, Beijing and Moscow blocked a resolution.

 So if you can't go to the established global order that you hear President Biden reference so often, what do you do? There's the military option, which is more of sort of a muscle flexing. Does the United States consider more military exercises, and in which case is the public comfortable with that?

The UN security council is fractured as Moscow and Beijing would not vote against North Korea

We went through this debate during the Trump administration in terms of the degree to which the United States wants to continue to provide a very strong nuclear umbrella and keep the US forces on the Korean peninsula. 

The US keeps a military presence in that country because the United States is sworn as a treaty ally to protect South Korea.

So even if this is just a test, the other concern here is that Kim Jong UN could instigate some sort of incident. 

There could be a miscalculation. There could be an inter-Korean conflict.

 The rhetoric might be laying the groundwork for something to happen that would force the United States to make a decision in Asia.

South Korea and North Korea have fired shots at each other

North and South Korea have exchanged warning shots along their Western sea border. South Korea's military says its navy fired those shots to repel a North Korean ship that had crossed the sea boundary between the north and south. Pyongyang's military says it responded by firing ten artillery shots as a warning to the south. 

North Korea and South Korea share a western sea border

A North Korean ship, according to the South Korean military, crossed this borderline in the sea and into South Korean waters. The South Korean navy issued warnings to try and stop the boat from crossing, and they fired warning shots to get it to stay back, but it crossed anyway.

North Korea then responded to the shots that have been fired by the South Korean military a couple of hours later, firing what it said were warning shots of its own. 

But this sea border between the two countries is disputed. And you have to remember that these countries are still at war technically.

 So these sorts of incursions can be quite serious. 

The South Korean Defense Ministry has come out and said that they think that this incursion, as they're calling it, was done deliberately. 

They are concerned that North Korea could be using this as a way to increase tensions and build towards what could be a future of more serious provocations.

Kim Jong Un's closeness with Xi Jinping has kept him sheltered from UNSC resolutions

We are in a situation now where tensions on this peninsula are probably the most heightened they've been in about five years. It has been really quite a remarkable month, even by North Korean standards. 

Not only has this been a record year for their missile testing, but in the last month, in particular, we've seen them launch a barrage of missiles.

They've held a series of military drills, flying their warplanes right up to the border with South Korea. We've seen them fire hundreds of shells of artillery into the sea. And all this is ramping up the military tension on the peninsula. 

North Korea fired a missile over Japan, provoking the island nation

But it comes at a time when South Korea and the United States have been holding large-scale military exercises of their own. 

Now, the backdrop to this is that the two sides, North Korea and particularly the United States, have been in a stalemate for many years. Their negotiations about North Korea's nuclear program have been stalled. 

And in the meantime, North Korea has been continuing to build up its weapons and continuing with its nuclear program. 

The USA and South Korea have been holding military exercises

Now, the way that South Korea and the US have responded is to bolster their defence of the peninsula and hold these large-scale military exercises. But what it's done is it's antagonized Kim Jong Un who hates these military exercises. 

However, rather than being a direct response to the military exercises, there is some concern that North Korea is using this military escalation to prepare for its next step, to justify its next move.

The current tensions between the US and North Korea make me wonder if Trump was more successful in his pursuit of foreign policy, directed towards the Korean peninsula. 

Even though it gave us many awkward moments such as the one outlined in the video below, at least he was able to get the North Korean dictator to the negotiating table. 

It was the first time that a North Korean leader and the President of the United States got together.

 It was a milestone in the history of international relations. Consequently, we also had visuals of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-In hugging and shaking hands, even crossing borders into each other’s countries. 

President Trump was able to get Kim Jong Un to the negotiating table

Decisions were made on denuclearization and normalization of relations between the US and North Korea. But fast forward a few years later, the relations are as cold as ever. 

The international arena is in a disarray and the United States is facing cold shoulders from all sides. If North Korea is looking towards developing nuclear weapons, what is stopping Iran from doing the same? 

It is a serious development in international relations and has the potential of changing the geopolitical arena forever.

Is Kim Jong Un planning something big?

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