Sounds of war from Latin America.The global balance of power is transforming.The world is witnessing a shift in the global order, as new alliances and rivalries emer

The global balance of power is transforming.

The world is witnessing a shift in the global order, as new alliances and rivalries emerge. One of the hotspots of tension is the border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana, which could escalate into a war. In this article, I will examine the factors that influence this conflict, such as the role of the Middle East cooperation force, the European diplomatic efforts in China, and the possible outcomes of a confrontation.

The old paradigm of a bipolar or unipolar world is no longer valid, as new actors and interests challenge the status quo. The world is becoming more complex and fragmented, and regional dynamics are more influential than ever.  The geopolitical game is changing, and so are the geoeconomic implications.

The Venezuelan President, Maduro, has declared his intention to invade Guyana and 

 that the territory is Venezuelan. Maduro's target is the Essequibo region of Guyana, known for its abundant underground metal resources and oil.  

Brazil is organizing an army on the border to oppose this attack. The United States is showing its support to Guyana by carrying out cooperative air exercises whilst keeping an eye on developments. Furthermore, Guyana is a member of the British Commonwealth. 

Now the war begins in the US backyard. The United States has stated that Latin America falls within its sphere of influence, supported by the adoption of the James Monroe Doctrine in 1823. A possible war in Latin America causes great unrest in the USA and poses a great security risk for the USA.

Maduro is capable of initiating a war. Previously, Juan Guaido declared himself interim president against Maduro, but attempts to remove Maduro were unsuccessful despite support from the United States and Europe. Furthermore, Venezuela has been subjected to several embargoes by the EU and the US, however, these sanctions did not achieve the intended political change. Maduro received open support from Colombia, Russia, China, and Turkey.

After suffering a defeat, both the United States and the European Union conceded to acknowledge Maduro as Venezuela's President.

Just as the US challenged Russia using Ukraine, they are now challenging the US through Venezuela.  While normally no country in Latin America could challenge the US, Venezuela was able to. Venezuela has strong allies and is steadfast in its goal to reclaim its territory from Guaidan. Should Venezuela take control of Guaidan's Essequibo region and subsequently be targeted by US bombing, Latin America would find itself in a state of chaos with dire implications for the United States. This could be a significant blow to the US both domestically and internationally. 

The initial countries to provide support to Venezuela will primarily consist of Russia, China, and Iran, although several other nations will also lend assistance in various forms. Each country engages in its assessments and pursues actions that align with their respective interests. The United States is not widely favored in Latin America.  If the US chooses to intervene in the conflict between Venezuela and Guaido, it could potentially create a complicated situation in Latin America, comparable to what has happened in the Middle East. This is the first instance of war approaching the doorstep of the United States.

The newly elected president of Argentina has 

 their country's claim to the Falkland Islands.  

 In 1982, Argentina unsuccessfully attempted to capture the islands from the British. It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself.

This attitude of Venezuela will change the geopolitics in Latin America and the world. 

Previously, Republican members of the House of Representatives in the United States initiated an investigation to impeach Joe Biden. However, now that sufficient evidence has been gathered, they have announced their intention to proceed with the impeachment. This suggests that intense political conflict is underway in the United States.

Upon examination of the Middle East region, it can be observed that American influence is waning and their ability to maintain a prolonged presence is limited. During Putin's visit to the Gulf countries, the Iranian leader's visit to Moscow, and Erdogan's visit to Qatar, significant progress was made towards promoting regional cooperation and peace. These visits were positive and promising for the future of the region.

There are currently no issues between Iran and the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia. In the event of a peaceful Middle East, the United States will not have a lengthy presence within the region.  Recently, Turkish President Erdogan successfully conducted his visit to Greece.

The European Union visited China to discuss trade. During the meeting, China advised the EU to pursue trade independently from the US. In light of the damages suffered due to the war in Ukraine, the EU has decided to resume and boost trade with China, separate from its dealings with the US. Developing trade with China is crucial for Europe's economic growth.

After the Ukrainian war ends and Ukraine is defeated, the damage inflicted on Europe will become more apparent. There will be an increase in internal fighting and disputes within Europe, particularly between the East and West.  You can read my old article on this subject.

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International Relations, Threat, and Geopolitics Analyst Kanan Heydarov

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