The growing crisis in Europe.Europe is facing multiple challenges in the current geopolitical context. Some of the most pressing issues are the growing popularity of

Europe is facing multiple challenges in the current geopolitical context

. Some of the most pressing issues are the growing popularity of nationalist parties, the diplomatic relations with Qatar, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the internal divisions among the European Union members. In this article, I will discuss these topics and analyze their implications for the future of Europe.

The US Commissioner for Counter-terrorism and Financial Crimes is traveling to Turkey with the goal of persuading Turkey to impose sanctions on Russia and Hamas. 

A report has been produced by the European Union, which provides a new customs agreement with Turkey and expresses the desire for Turkey to impose sanctions on Russia and Hamas.

The United States has the authority to impose sanctions on select companies within Turkey. However, the European Union is unable to impose sanctions on Turkey. This is due to Europe's dependence on Turkey for energy, as all major energy routes transit through Turkey, and contracts have been established with Europe on this matter. Thus, any punitive measures taken by the EU towards Turkey would result in a significant energy shortage throughout Europe.

Turkey is currently implementing a novel strategy to collaborate with the countries in its region. Therefore, to circumvent issues, it is imperative to agree with Turkey. Threatening or attempting to intimidate is counterproductive.

The European Union will refrain from imposing sanctions on Turkey. Conversely, the United States will apply pressure, intimidation, and threats to Turkey, yet will not pursue measures that could result in more severe repercussions. But there will be a deal in the end.

The President of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, traveled to Qatar but had to wait for 30 minutes at the gate of his aircraft as no state official was present to receive him.

The lack of an official welcome was seen as a major diplomatic snub for Germany, likely because they supported Israel. Qatar's actions have sparked intense discussions in Germany and across Europe.

Qatar and Turkey have a parallel relationship, causing a 30-minute delay for Germany in Qatar. Europe may face energy-related difficulties if it adopts a tough stance against Turkey, leading to potential waiting times upon arrival in the Middle East. 

The United States is striving for peace in the Middle East. The US understands that collaborating with Turkey is key to achieving peace in the Middle East. Continuous issues in the region divert its attention from the ongoing struggle in the Asia Pacific against China. The US understands that collaborating with Turkey is key to achieving peace in the Middle East. As the saying goes, you scratch my back, and I'll scratch yours. Therefore, a deal will be made. Qatar plays a significant role in promoting peace as a regional peace ambassador. Furthermore, it conducts all business within the region. The recent organization of the prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas was a successful instance of Qatar's role as a mediator. The country is known for hosting meetings and negotiations.

In Germany, the Constitutional Court decided on 15 November. a decision regarding Olaf Scholz's allocation of 60 billion euros towards combating climate change. However, the constitutional court deemed this decision unconstitutional and consequently blocked it.

This highlights the presence of disagreements within Germany. The country's government is struggling with budget management. The European Union is under the economic leadership of Germany and there are likely to be big problems in this regard.

A significant shift is imminent in the European Union, whether one refers to it as the surge of the right-wing or the Republicans, nationalists, or patriots. A novel and swiftly ascending influence is emerging in the EU. Even the change has begun.

Upon examining the European Union, it is evident that a dominant leader is absent from the region.  The collective will of the European Union has become fragmented due to internal strife and notable disagreement. The emergence of right-wing movements and their subsequent rise to power in certain countries will further exacerbate existing differences of opinion within the European Union. Although the European Union appears as a unified entity, it is, in fact, leaderless, internally divided, and fraught with differences of opinion. The differences between Europe in 2019 and the current situation are substantial. In the last four years, Geopolitical, Political, Economic, and Financial events have significantly disturbed the order in Europe.

In the future, Europe will likely be divided into two parts: Western and Eastern Europe. There will be questioning and disagreement among powerful countries such as Germany and France about their financing of certain countries, including Greece, Portugal, and some in Eastern Europe. These divisions will lead to the formation of two blocks within Europe.  

Looking at what is happening now, there is a possibility that the above-mentioned possibility may be realized.

There will be upcoming elections in the European Union and several EU member countries. Currently, right-wing parties hold power in four European countries and are prominent in other EU nations.  The right-wing parties are expected to have significant representation in the European Parliament and may seek to alter the laws of the European Union. This may result in a significant conflict between globalists and nationalists within the European Union. Those on the right also referred to as nationalists, are currently advocating against accepting decisions made by globalists, as seen in Germany. Large-scale disputes are inevitable in Europe, the first of which will occur in France. 

The end of the conflict in Ukraine draws near, and the current state of affairs indicates that Ukraine may be headed towards defeat. The war is at a stalemate, with no prospects of achieving further gains. The support that was once provided by both the United States and Europe has dwindled. The US aid package, originally intended to be sent to Ukraine, was halted due to Republican opposition. The upcoming US elections appear to heavily favor the re-election of President Trump.  There is prevalent corruption in Ukraine, and all of its attempts to attack Russia have been unsuccessful. Ukraine has not attained any notable triumphs against Russia within the past two years. 

With the US and Europe supporting Israel, Ukraine fell into the background.

There is currently a significant disagreement between Ukraine's Chief of the General Staff and President Zelensky regarding the conclusion of the Ukrainian conflict. While with Western support Ukraine managed to halt Russia's aggression, the lack of complete success allowed Russia to claim control over parts of eastern Ukraine, including Crimea, equating to 20 or 30% of Ukraine's territory. Europe is currently shifting its attention towards domestic issues, indicating a dwindling appetite for protracted involvement in the Ukrainian crisis. The Western Union has ended its support for Ukraine as we near the end of the conflict. Despite the Union's best efforts, the country was unable to achieve complete success, resulting in half of its population migrating to Europe.  This in turn may lead to future societal issues in Europe. 

Shortly After the Ukrainian war, the Western Union did everything it could, but in the end, Ukraine did not achieve full success, and this is Ukraine's problem, not the West's. 

The year 2024 will be of utmost importance, with 70 countries and the European Parliament holding elections that will have a significant impact on the world's trajectory. The outcome of the US election will be particularly influential, as a potential Trump presidency would result in considerable change. 

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International Relations, Threat, and Geopolitics Analyst Kanan Heydarov

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