           Introduction69-year-old Masoud Pezeshkian won the snap election held on July 5, 2024 – in the wake of former President late Ebrahim Raisi’s death in an he

Masoud Pezeshkian won the snap election held on July 5, 2024 – in the wake of former President late Ebrahim Raisi’s death in an helicopter crash in May. He had run for President in 2013 and 2021 but was unsuccessful.

Pezeshkian, who has earlier served as Health Minister under Former President Khatami – a moderate -- has been critical of Iran’s suppression of protests. The Iranian President elect criticised the heavy-handed response to pro-democracy protests in 2009, as well as the Iranian government’s violent response to the protests in the aftermath of Mahsa Amini’s death in 2022 (she had died in the custody of the moral police after violating Iran’s dress code for women).

Pezeshkian – who hails from a mixed family – takes over at a time when Iran is globally isolated and faces not just serious economic challenges – due to stringent US sanctions – but the threat of conflict with Israel due to the strains in the Middle East. After his win, he clearly indicated that he was keen to build domestic consensus.

“We will extend the hand of friendship to everyone; we are all people of this country and should utilize everyone’s efforts for the nation’s progress,”

During presidential debates, Masoud Pezeshkian underscored two important points. First, he had supporters from varying ideological shades and second, he was in favour of engagement with the global community. While underscoring the need for engaging with the global community, Pezeshkian said:

“The primary issue is the perspective: Do we want to solve our problems with the world or not? I believe we must get out of the deadlock to solve the country’s problems,” 

As mentioned earlier, Iran faces serious challenges – economic and geopolitical and Pezeshkian’s task is clearly cut out. Iran has been dealing with high inflation and ordinary citizens would be looking for some temporary economic relief. A pragmatic approach vis-à-vis the west could possibly help Iran in dealing with its daunting economic challenges. Given the current situation in the Middle East and the flux in US politics it is highly unlikely that the current dispensation led by the Democrats -- virtually lame duck will take any major steps. If Trump were to win the 2024 election, he is unlikely to follow a soft approach vis-à-vis Iran – it was during his Presidency that US withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal/JCPOA (Trump had in fact even criticised the Biden administration for easing out sanctions vis-à-vis Iran).

Ties between Iran have improved with China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. He received congratulatory messages from amongst others the Russian President, Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince, Muhammed Bin Salman (MBS). Said MBS:

“keen to develop and deepen the relations that bring together our two countries and peoples, and serve our common interests,”

India, whose strategic ties with US have grown significantly in recent years, has also been trying to strengthen ties with Iran especially in the realm of connectivity (the Chabahar Port Project and the International North South Transport Corridor are strong reiterations of the same). It would be pertinent to point out that Iran also got membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) during India's presidency in 2023.

While congratulating the Iranian President elect, PM Modi said:

"Looking forward to working closely with you to further strengthen our warm and long-standing bilateral relationship for the benefit of our people and the region,"

The relatively moderate and pragmatic Zarif, who served as Iran’s Foreign Minister under Raisi’s predecessor Hassan Rafsanjani, could be appointed Foreign Minister again. This could pave the way for a less hawkish approach vis-à-vis the west, as mentioned earlier, which could possibly benefit Iran and also help in reducing tensions in the Middle East.

It is important however to bear in mind, that the Iranian President does not have the final say on key matters pertaining to security such – including Iran’s nuclear program. It is Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who calls the shots on such issues, though the President does provide advice on these issues.

In conclusion, the election of a moderate, pragmatic face augurs well not just for Iran but for the global community. At the same time, it is important to realize that the Iranian President elect will be hemmed in by several constraints thus it is important to have realistic expectations.

Is Iran's foreign policy likely to witness a shift under the presidency of Masoud Pezeshkian?

0 Comments