Geopolitical developments in the Middle EastOver the past few years, the Middle East has witnessed significant changes, which have had an indelible impact on the geo

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East

Over the past few years, the Middle East has witnessed significant changes, which have had an indelible impact on the geopolitical landscape of the region. The first major development was the normalization of ties between Arab countries – UAE, Bahrain and Israel in September 2020 via the Abraham accords brokered by the 

. Morocco and Sudan also were added to the accords in 

 2021 respectively.  The Abraham accords were dubbed as one of former US President Donald Trump’s major diplomatic achievements and even the Biden administration has 

 the importance of these accords. The US has also been making efforts for normalization of ties 

US reactions to China’s growing clout in the GCC

The second important development has been differences between Gulf countries – UAE and Saudi Arabia – with Washington due to their growing proximity with Beijing – especially in the area of 

 Senior US officials have repeatedly underscored the point that the growing proximity between these Gulf countries and China could have an adverse 

 on ties with the US. The growing proximity of UAE and Saudi Arabia with China has been attributed not merely to synergies in areas like energy, tech and infrastructure, but also to the 

 that Washington was paying lesser attention to the Middle East (though this does not seem true). In the case of Saudi Arabia, the Biden Administration’s initial 

 of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) was cited as an important reason for Saudi Arabia seeking to strengthen ties with China.

 Both UAE and the Saudis refused to increase oil output in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war. In fact on the contrary, Saudi Arabia along with Russia and other members of OPEC+ has reduced oil production -- with the aim of ensuring that 

UAE and Saudi Arabia need to walk a tightrope between Washington and Beijing

Here it would be pertinent to point out, that despite the growing proximity with Beijing, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have strong linkages with the US and are keen not to get trapped in the 

. A strong reiteration of this is not just the close economic and strong bilateral ties with Washington, but also the launch of the ambitious 

, announced at the recent G20 Summit held in New Delhi . This project falls under the ambit of Partnership for Global Infrastructure Investment (PGII) -- a G7 initiative. PGII was initially 

 in 2022. This could be a step towards normalisation of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, though the former has categorically said that it would only normalise ties  with Israel only when the 

 UAE is also part of the I2U2 also referred to as the West Asian Quad, another US led initiative, which also consists of India and Israel. The I2U2, which is seeking to find synergies in areas 

like energy, food security, water and health

, is also aimed at checking China’s growing clout in the Middle East

The most interesting development has been the agreement brokered by China in March 2023, between 

 for restoration of diplomatic relations. Only recently, both countries also exchanged ambassadors. On 

 Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Iran arrived Tuesday in the Islamic Republic, and his counterpart landed in Riyadh. This reiterates not just the growing clout of China in the Middle East (Beijing shares close ties with both Iran and Gulf countries). The US while reacting to the deal had said that it welcomed any 

 which would help in bringing about peace in the region.

Qatar’s role in reducing US-Iran tensions

Amidst this changing landscape in the Middle East, one country whose strategic importance has grown and ties with US have enhanced are Qatar. Talks between the 

Afghan Taliban and the US and then between the erstwhile Afghan government and Taliban – aimed at paving the way for withdrawal of US and NATO Troops from Afghanistan --  

 of US citizens from Afghanistan, after the Taliban takeover of the country, 2021. The Gulf nation has also been mediating between US and Iran to 

 While this decision was first announced, during the US visit of Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, at the White House in 

, the Presidential declaration was made in March 2022.  The US State Department while commenting on the designation of Qatar 

“is a powerful symbol of the close relationship the United States shares with those countries and demonstrates our deep respect for the friendship for the countries to which it is extended”

In recent days, while all eyes have been on the diplomatic and economic moves of UAE and Saudi Arabia, Iran and the US are on the verge of a prisoner swap under a Qatar mediated  deal which will see the release of 

 and vice-versa. Significantly, US gave the go ahead for the transfer of 

. Qatar will supervise the usage of these funds, and ensure that they are used for 

In 2017, Qatar had been isolated in the Middle East after Arab countries including -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt – severed ties with Qatar, imposing a boycott, and accused Doha of supporting 

 . In 2021 all countries other than Bahrain resumed diplomatic ties, while in April 2023, Bahrain also announced that it will be resuming 

In conclusion, the Middle East is witnessing significant changes and while China may have managed to increase its influence in recent years it is important not to lose sight of a few points. First, the US-Iran swap shows that while Iran-China ties may have grown, Tehran is keen to shed its economic isolation and reduce tensions with the west. Even after the signing of a 25-year agreement with China, referred to as “strategic cooperation pact”, China has not made any significant investments in Iran. Second, the role of Qatar --which for long has remained in the shadows of other GCC states – in backchannel talks between US and Iran reiterates the complex nature of the geopolitics of the Gulf. Finally, while the Biden administration has drawn flak on several foreign policy issues, it has made serious attempts to reduce tensions with Iran despite 

The complex geopolitics of the Middle East and the increasing importance of US-Qatar relations

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